This is a set of plots to analyze the great floods in Michigan (and Wisconsin and Minnesota) in April of 2026.
The analysis is in context of a warming climate. Since much of the news of 2026 was just how cold the eastern half of the U.S. was, it is important to place the winter temperatures in a broader context. 1(News links on cold winter: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/02/05/harsh-winter-cold-snow-maps/ , https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/07/climate/warmest-winter-us-east-versus-west , https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/03/we-just-had-the-second-warmest-winter-in-u-s-history-despite-icy-blasts/ )
How cold was 2026 winter in Michigan?
Not very.
(Plots from ncei.noaa.gov/here )
For the state of Michigan, 2015 was one of coldest years on record, and February 2015 was the coldest month. Winter 2026 was actually above average (1951-1980).
The following plots are for February.
The same is true for the Eastern U.S.
If we look at the GISS global anomaly of 2015 – average (1951-1980), we see the same warm west / cold east pattern as in 2026, though, in fact, with much more contrast.
(Plots from data.giss.nasa.gov/here )
If we subtract, 2026 – 2015, we see that 2026 is 4.0 to 9.5° C warmer than 2015 in eastern North America.
It is difficult to claim that 2026 winter was especially cold.
So what is the story of it being so cold?
(Plots from weather.gov/here )
There were two cold air outbreaks. One in early December, another in late January and early February. These were relatively short-lived events.
In Michigan, January, as a whole, was slightly below average (1951-1980), and comparable to 2019 and 2022.
(Click here for comparison to average (1991-2020) )