Image:

Forecast-based planning (left) uses predictions of a single future. Scenario-based climate change adaptation (right) works with a set of plausible futures that capture a broad range of conditions, providing a framework to support decisions under conditions that are uncertain and uncontrollable. Caption and figure sourced from the National Park Service (NPS).

 

Scenario Planning Collection

This is a selection of materials on Scenario Planning. It is largely drawn from my work in GLISA: A NOAA CAP Team, previously, the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Center.

Here is the scenario planning page at GLISA:

GLISA: Scenario Planning (Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments)

 

GLISA’s scenario planning approach describes plausible future events and has actors (i.e., stakeholders) respond to them. The goal is to account for uncertainty by developing a framework to plan for potentially disastrous disruptions, rather than only focusing on specific, likely outcomes. When focusing only on likely events, actors discount other high-risk scenarios. Planning for multiple plausible futures, including extremes, can increase the robustness of management practices and preparedness for climate change impacts.

What is Scenario Planning?

Scenario planning is a method to manage uncertainty, especially high-risk events. It has been used by the U.S. military, the energy sector, and NASA. The development of modern scenario planning occurred in the 1950s, and was designed by Herman Kahn, a researcher from the Rand Corporation. Kahn helped the United States government explore possibilities besides “annihilation and surrender” for unthinkable situations (e.g., nuclear war) through the use of scenarios. Later, Royal Dutch/Shell Oil Company used scenarios to help navigate the uncertain business world. Their development of scenarios was one of the first well-known successes in their field. Stepping away from the usual business forecasting method and relying on scenario planning made them more resilient during the oil embargo in 1973 compared to other companies. Scenario planning creates a framework to consider several novel situations, not just what may be expected based on the past, leading to increased preparation for any plausible future, even if event probabilities are low.

Most importantly, scenario planning is process that brings together practitioners, who need science-based information about the future, and experts, who can translate and communicate available relevant science.

In GLISA’s experience, two conditions are necessary for a successful scenario planning process:

  • First, the scenarios and solution strategies must be collaboratively created by all relevant stakeholders. It is important that anyone who may be asked to integrate the scenarios into their work and/or use them in planning is included in the process – this way they have ownership of the scenarios. Making sure the right stakeholders are included in the process is primarily the responsibility of practitioner, since they are most familiar with the types of information needed and stakeholder roles in the decision making processes. Additional outside expertise should be solicited as needed and may draw from existing networks of specialists or practitioners in similar fields.
  • Second, management goals must be clearly defined from the beginning of the process, because the development of the scenarios depends completely on the definition of management goals and challenges that the scenarios are intended to address. If management goals are vague or abstract it will be more difficult to develop customized scenarios that are meaningful and actionable.

Publications

Producing Usable Climate Information in the Great Lakes Region: A Technical Report on GLISA’s Use of Climate Models and Scenario Planning (Oriol et al., 2025; GLISA Technical Report)

Scenario planning for climate adaptation and management: a high-level synthesis and standardization of methodology (Oriol et al., 2024; Frontiers in Climate)

The articles, above, are derived from the undergraduate thesis of Lunia Oriol:  Management of an Unknowable Future (2022).

Examples

CLIMATE BLUE Articles/ Essays

I wrote a series of articles exploring scenario planning and developing a set of rules on how to write plausible storylines for scenarios.

Here they are:

Stories and Scenarios for a Warming Climate

These have informed the videos in my course Managing Climate Change Consequences. Direct message for the password.

Protected: MCCC Scenario Planning Module

Videos

  • Stories of Our Climate Future
    • This talk was given in October, 2023 at the Midwest Climate Resilience Conference. It focuses on how to use storytelling, story lines, in developing plausible scenarios for climate adaptation. It is about how to start a story, how to frame the opening. Script 
  • Great Lakes Climate Futures: Storylines and Scenarios
    • To commemorate the 50th anniversary of NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (NOAA GLERL), this special session at the 2024 International Association for Great Lakes Research conference highlighted GLERL’s achievements over the last half-century and looked forward to its future science, service and stewardship in the Great Lakes region.
  • Adaptation: We Must Think Beyond Just Building Back Better
    • The lecture draws comparison of human behavior at the end of the ice age and today. At both times we face rapid climate change. Today, we know what is coming and why it is happening. Our ice-age ancestors were left to myth and mystery.  It is argued that what is coming requires us to think about adaptation far differently than we have been. We cannot protect and persist. We will need to develop a more anticipatory approach that realizes that our climate will not settle down for many decades. In the end, our adaptation will need to have mitigation occur as a natural outcome of what we do. Design, architecture, and engineering are core practices that will lead to successful adaptation.  This was presented at the Italian Pavilion at the Biennale di Venezia on October 5, 2021.