Winter is Getting Warmer: Warming Winter Syndrome

Winter is Getting Warmer: Warming Winter Syndrome

One of the most robust measures of Earth’s changing climate is that winter is warming more quickly than other seasons. The cascade of changes it brings, including ice storms and rain in regions that were once reliably below freezing, are symptoms of what I call “warming winter syndrome.”

In this February 28, 2025 update, I have done more than 50 media interviews since 2020 on winter getting warmer. They are in the table below.

In the winter of 2024, I published a piece in The Conversation on

Warming Winter Syndrome

Ice storms, January downpours, heavy snow, no snow: Diagnosing ‘warming winter syndrome’ (GEMlive)

It was, in fact, so warm that it was republished a couple of weeks later as

Diagnosing ‘warming winter syndrome’ as summerlike heat sweeps into central and eastern US.

Then it was reprinted in a curated collection The Conversation on Extreme Weather.

I complemented The Conversation article in my Climate Blue column in Michigan Today. In that article I emphasized the profound role that the northward and westward migration of the average freezing line plays in the transformation of winter. The article was entitled

Living on the Edge

In the winter of 2025, I published pieces in The Conversation and the Detroit Free Press on how it just does not get as cold as it used to.

The article

That Arctic blast can feel brutally cold, but how much colder than ‘normal’ is it really?,  appeared in The Conversation on January 6, 2025. (Republished January 18, 2025)

The article

Don’t let these temperatures fool you: The extreme winters of the past are gone | Opinion, appeared in the Detroit Free Press on January 8, 2025.

Warming Winter and Loss of Lake Ice interview, Stateside, Michigan Public (NPR)

Freezing Rain

This link is to a peer-reviewed paper on how freezing rain is changing in the Great Lakes region (September 8, 2025)

Climatology and Recent Changes in the Occurrence of Freezing Rain throughout the Laurentian Great Lakes Region (del Pizzo, et al. 2025) (GEMlive)

In late March of 2025, Michigan had a historic freezing rain event that caused extensive damage. That event was in line with that discussed in the paper.

Apostle Islands Ice

The Apostle Islands National Lakeshore on Lake Superior in Wisconsin is (increasingly was) famous for its ice caves.  Here are two papers we wrote on ice models for Apostle Islands.  The newer one is an updated and improved compared to the old one.

Combining Satellite, Teleconnection, and In Situ Data to Improve Understanding of Multi‐Decadal Coastal Ice Cover Dynamics on Earth’s Largest Freshwater Lake (Venumuddula et al., 2024)  (GEMlive)

Modeling seasonal onset of coastal ice (Ji et al., 2019)

It Still Gets Cold

And just as a reminder, though winter is warming fast It Still Gets Cold.

Necessary Loss

I want to point out two of the interviews by Kelly House at Bridge Michigan. In 2024, she noted that people in Michigan were feeling the loss of winter.  As I feel an important part of living with climate change is recognizing loss and realizing that there is something new, real, and vital after that loss, I think these articles are especially important. They recognize a mindset transition.

Climate change is erasing Michigan winters, taking our heritage with them

Michigan climate change: How fish, forests, farms, moose, ticks will change

Some pictures: The Wonder of Water:  Water, Ice, Vapor This is an art show by John Snell, that has beautiful pictures of what happens to water close to freezing.

Loss of lake ice

Aside from the loss of winter culture and wintertime economy, there are many physical and biological consequences of the loss of ice on the Great Lakes.  I am frequently asked why lake ice is important, and here is my list:

1. Larger lake effect precipitation events
2. Changes in lake level variability
3. Changes in seasonal runoff and the annual rhythm of water cycle
4. Changes in shore erosion
5. Changes in ecosystems

A table of articles

The post, above, is a collection of what I have written on warming winters and warming winter syndrome.

Below is a table of the interviews I have done on the warming winter.

The number of these interviews is anecdotal evidence of the changing climate and that people are noticing.

Many of the articles are about the consequences  that the warming winter will have.

Some years ago, it was fashionable to communicate climate change by comparing your state in 100 years to some other state now. Michigan was compared to Kentucky, Arkansas – warmer states to the south. I said at the time that most Michiganders I knew would say, “that’s a good thing!” In fact, I still get comments that there is no downside to winters getting warmer.

There are, however, many downsides. Most common in these interviews are the disruptions to a multi-billion dollar winter economy. But there will also be huge changes to ecosystems, public health, and agriculture. The decline and eventual loss of ice fishing is one that has really caught many people’s attention – this will change traditions and what we do.

The stories in these articles are far more convincing than me carrying on.