1. Uncertainty
    1. Introduction (30:34 Minute Lecture, slides, pdf): Science does not produce facts; it produces knowledge with a description of uncertainty. Knowledge is imperfect for many reasons. This lectures describes and categorizes different sources of uncertainty, and introduces how to use different sources of knowledge to bound uncertainty.
      1. Moss and Schneider: Consistent Reporting of Uncertainty in IPCC Reports
      2. Rood: Science Does Not Produce Facts (2 minutes)
      3. Rood: Controversy and Consistency: How we find confidence in conclusions (2 minutes)
    2. Types of Uncertainty (15:11 Minute Lecture, slides, pdf): Description of uncertainties related to future “emission” scenarios, model structure, observations, and internal variability. This uses IPCC global, surface-temperature time series to demonstrate how uncertainty is represented in these figures.
    3. Framing Uncertainty in Problem Solving (24:38 Minute Lecture, slides, pdf)
      1. Bias, Bias Correction, and Description of Uncertainty ( 18:33 Minute Lecture, slides, pdf) This lecture discusses how bias influences credibility and plausibility in the use of numbers drawn from climate models.
    4. Robustness
    5. Resources: A variety of papers at different levels of complexity
      1. Bassis (2021): Quit Worrying About Uncertainty in Sea Level Projections 
      2. Lemos and Rood (2010): Climate Projections in Policy and Practice: The Uncertainty Fallacy
      3. Climate Change Science Program: Best Practice Characterizing and Communication Uncertainty in Decision Making (2009)
      4. NRC, Chapter 6: Characterizing, Quantification, and Communicating Uncertainty: Rood was a lead author on this chapter.
      5. Knutti and Sedlacek (2013): Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections
      6. Knutti et al. (2018): Uncertainty Quantification Using Multiple Models (Book Chapter)
      7. DOE: Climate Research Roadmap Workshop: Summary Report (2010): Rood was lead author on Chapter 5. There is a discussion on uncertainty and addressing uncertainty in model development.