- Uncertainty
- Introduction (30:34 Minute Lecture, slides, pdf): Science does not produce facts; it produces knowledge with a description of uncertainty. Knowledge is imperfect for many reasons. This lectures describes and categorizes different sources of uncertainty, and introduces how to use different sources of knowledge to bound uncertainty.
- Moss and Schneider: Consistent Reporting of Uncertainty in IPCC Reports
- Rood: Science Does Not Produce Facts (2 minutes)
- Rood: Controversy and Consistency: How we find confidence in conclusions (2 minutes)
- Types of Uncertainty (15:11 Minute Lecture, slides, pdf): Description of uncertainties related to future “emission” scenarios, model structure, observations, and internal variability. This uses IPCC global, surface-temperature time series to demonstrate how uncertainty is represented in these figures.
- Framing Uncertainty in Problem Solving (24:38 Minute Lecture, slides, pdf)
- Bias, Bias Correction, and Description of Uncertainty ( 18:33 Minute Lecture, slides, pdf) This lecture discusses how bias influences credibility and plausibility in the use of numbers drawn from climate models.
- Robustness
- Resources: A variety of papers at different levels of complexity
- Bassis (2021): Quit Worrying About Uncertainty in Sea Level Projections
- Lemos and Rood (2010): Climate Projections in Policy and Practice: The Uncertainty Fallacy
- Climate Change Science Program: Best Practice Characterizing and Communication Uncertainty in Decision Making (2009)
- NRC, Chapter 6: Characterizing, Quantification, and Communicating Uncertainty: Rood was a lead author on this chapter.
- Knutti and Sedlacek (2013): Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections
- Knutti et al. (2018): Uncertainty Quantification Using Multiple Models (Book Chapter)
- DOE: Climate Research Roadmap Workshop: Summary Report (2010): Rood was lead author on Chapter 5. There is a discussion on uncertainty and addressing uncertainty in model development.
- Introduction (30:34 Minute Lecture, slides, pdf): Science does not produce facts; it produces knowledge with a description of uncertainty. Knowledge is imperfect for many reasons. This lectures describes and categorizes different sources of uncertainty, and introduces how to use different sources of knowledge to bound uncertainty.