Image: Rood family cabin, intact but moved, on the Neuse River, North Carolina, after Hurricane Florence and before Hurricane Dorian (August 2019). What is its future?
This course was designed for the Climate and Space (CLaSP) MEng in Applied Climate. It is CLIMATE 530 at the University of Michigan. The course is also designed to be accessible as an elective to those in other departments in the College of Engineering and across the University as a whole. The target is the professional who needs to incorporate climate knowledge in planning and design.
Course Description
“But regardless of how much supporting scientific information is available, making choices about how to act in the face of uncertainty can prove contentious if people disagree about the nature of the risks they face or about which elements of these risks are most important.”
America’s Climate Choices, 2011
This seminar-reading-discussion course focuses on special topics on the use of climate-change data and knowledge in planning, design, engineering and management. Topics include, for example, uncertainty in the context of decision making, non-stationarity in design and engineering, and vulnerability and risk assessment.
Examples of subject areas include:
- Description of uncertainty in climate data and projections and how to manage that uncertainty in planning and design,
- Exploration of incorporating non-stationarity of weather into planning and design,
- Discovery of vulnerability to changing weather and incorporation of knowledge into risk assessment and management.
These subject areas are at the leading edge, multi-disciplinary, complex and rapidly evolving. The course will include seminars by experts in the field, readings and responses. The course will consider application of the knowledge developed in the course to real-world applications.
“… in the case of some people, not even if we had the most accurate scientific knowledge, would it be easy to persuade them …”
Aristotle, Rhetoric, 350 BC
Course Structure / Syllabus
- Climate Science Background: “One Hour” Introduction/Summary of climate change science (Rood Lectures)
- WMO State of the Global Climate: Information is presented at several levels of detail, it is worth exploring the site. (press release for State of Climate 2021)
- Uncertainty
- Introduction to Uncertainty in the Scientific Investigation of Earth’s Climate (Uncertainty Introduction Short Course & Rood Lectures) This series of lectures introduces uncertainty, in general, and the most common classification of uncertainty as model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability. The representation of these uncertainties, as well as observational uncertainty is discussed using IPCC surface temperature figures.
- The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions (Hawkins and Sutton (2009)) This paper is an important paper by climate scientists on how to think about uncertainty at different spans of time and different size regions.
- Assessments: Assessments are formal synthesis by the community of the state of the science. They are intended to translate the scientific knowledge to policy makers, perhaps, the public. A question always arises, are they effective at this translation? Is the information provided usable in problem solving? For this part of the course, it is best to have selected or be in the process of selecting a problem to focus on. It is good to have a particular locality (e.g, Great Lakes shoreline) and perhaps a particular climate impact (e.g. high lake levels). Then the student has a foundation to evaluate the usability of the information in the assessments. (These resources should be updated regularly.)
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments (Synthesis Report: Summary for Policy Makers (AR5))
- U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) (2018 US NCA)
- There may be more local assessments or “boundary” organizations that tailor climate knowledge for a region or a certain climate impact. The Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessment Center (GLISA) is such an organization. GLISA is part of the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) network. (Great Lakes Climate Change 101, GLISA Annual Climate Trends and Impacts)
- Problem Solving:
- Overview Lectures: These lectures are public lectures that serve as overview lectures of complex problem solving.
- Framing Climate Change Problem Solving (University of Michigan Biological Station May 2020).
- The Usability of Climate Science in Planning and Management (Lake Levels Use Case): (Colorado State University September 2019)
- Problem Solving Introduction: This material introduces knowledge system theory and structured problem solving. The concept of science usability is introduced. The student should become familiar with the concepts of legitimacy, credibility, and salience. The lectures and materials are collected in Problem Solving Introduction (Short Course).
- Communication: This article discusses Communication and Continuity as essential elements of problem solving and changing organizations.
- This collection of materials on Rhetoric and Argumentation has proved of interest to all of my classes, whether or not they are on climate change. It contains a table of many references.
- Overview Lectures: These lectures are public lectures that serve as overview lectures of complex problem solving.
- Scenario Planning:
- A Practitioner’s Guide to Climate Model Scenarios: This Guide is written for practitioners already using or wanting to use future climate information in their work, but who are not familiar with the underlying assumptions and choices surrounding climate data. Here, we introduce the climate model scenarios that are used to “drive” climate models forward in time.
- Scenario Planning: GLISA’s scenario planning approach describes plausible future events and has actors (i.e., stakeholders) respond to them. The goal is to account for uncertainty by developing a framework to plan for potentially disastrous disruptions, rather than only focusing on specific, likely outcomes.
- Using Climate Change Scenarios to Explore Management at Isle Royale National Park: This is a reference that provides an introduction to scenario planning, as well as good examples of disruptive climate scenarios. (Fisichelli et al. (2013))
- Framing Uncertainty:
- Reducing doubt about uncertainty: Guidance for IPCC’s third assessment (Moss (2011))
- Ethical considerations with downscaled data (Hewitson et al. (2014))
- The Uncertainty Fallacy: Climate projections and their impact on policy and practice (Lemos and Rood (2010))
- Risk and reason (Recordings of radio series): (National Public Radio)
- What do policy-makers do with scientific uncertainty? The incremental character of Swedish climate change policy-making (Knaggard (2014))
- News Cycle: Many of problems we work on are emerging and active in the news. There are stories of direct and indirect relevance. Some of these stories can change the path of a project. All stories should be evaluated for legitimacy and credibility. A set of news articles is captured and tagged at https://openclimate.tumblr.com/.
- Lecture from Local or Discipline Expert
Problem Statements
Each year the course focuses on a different real-world problem to provide context and to help prioritize decision making by narrowing uncertainty.
Climate, Extreme Precipitation, Lake Levels, Wild Rice, and Great Lake’s Dunes
We are thinking about extreme precipitation and the water levels of the U.S. Great Lakes. It is a year when the lake levels are very high – record highs. Not so long ago, 2013-2014 the lakes levels were at record lows. What does this have to do with climate change? And how can we plan for the future?
Here is a collection of articles on lake levels:
https://openclimate.tumblr.com/tagged/lake-levels
We are also, at this time, experiencing more and more extreme precipitation. In the past year there have been extraordinary amounts of precipitation.
https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-has-its-wettest-12-months-on-record-again
These two phenomena, lake levels and extreme precipitation are important in the Great Lakes region.
Outside of the Great Lakes region, most people do not appreciate the size of the lakes, what is built on the coasts, and the importance of the lakes for all types of commerce. Not only that, the Great Lakes hold an enormous amount of the fresh water in the U.S. When the levels were low, and people thought they would stay low, they built houses out on the dry land. Now, where these house were built, the lake is back. There is damage to city’s water fronts. There is storm surge.
Wild rice is an important crop in the region, especially for the economies of Indigenous Tribes. Wild rice is a crop of wet lands, and thrives in a relatively narrow range of environmental parameters. Aside from basic dependencies on temperature and moisture, extreme rains and runoff offer event-based risks.
Dunes in the Great Lakes are different that what we think about at Kitty Hawk and in Death Valley. They are often remnant from retreat of ice sheets and lakes after the last ice age. Many have been stabilized with vegetation. People live on the dunes. With high water there is erosion at the base of the dunes; houses are being destabilized.
This year, 2019, we look at how to frame climate uncertainty for a set of problems relevant to wild rice and dunes – and communities whose economies rely on wild rice and dunes.
Climate and Agriculture in Michigan
The relation between agriculture and climate change is complex. Most are aware of the relations of plant and animal growth to temperature and water. As well, many realize that the carbon dioxide we are adding to the atmosphere also influences the growth of plants – the carbon dioxide fertilizer effect. But the influence of climatic conditions on agriculture depends on many other factors.
Arguably, farmers and ranchers have been living with and adapting to climate change for millennia. Farmers change crops as conditions demand. Seed suppliers and machinery manufacturers change their offerings, for example, noting extended growing seasons and changes in seasonal moisture.
Then, there are huge disparities between farming in industrial countries with managed water and built infrastructure and those areas with more natural environments and, perhaps, high temperatures and marginal water. Climatic impacts are different in a region that depends on warm season rain as opposed to melting of winter snow pack from a distant mountain range.
Then there is the fact that farming and ranching is, often, not local. Agriculture on a planetary scale relies on markets. Some countries with limited water have decided to use that water for industry and human consumption, essentially outsourcing their agriculture to the market. Food security often is more strongly based on policy and distribution than availability.
In the 2018 class, we will look at climate change, agriculture, and uncertainty. We will focus on two problems in Michigan. 1) Does climate change improve the prospects of a wine country in Michigan. Should my county invest in infrastructure to attract more wine tourism? 2) The growing season is getting longer and the corn belt is moving north. Should my county invest in infrastructure to attract more corn and soy bean farming?
Sea Level Rise: Charleston and Houston
During the past 100 years, sea level has risen. The rise is consistent with the ocean expanding due to the absorption of heat and the melting of glaciers. Recent observations shows accelerating melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. In fact, there is evidence that several glaciers in West Antarctica are lost. Over the next decades, we will see, on average, persistent and accelerating sea level rise. This will cause profound changes to our coastlines.
It is, perhaps, counterintuitive that sea level rise varies from place to place. In fact, in some places, sea level is observed to be decreasing. This counterintuitive behavior is one of the issues that makes it difficult to calculate and describe uncertainty to local authorities in charge of planning and management.
In the 2017 class, we will look at sea level rise and uncertainty. We will focus on two localities, Charleston, South Carolina and Houston, Texas. We will use the experience of Hurricane Harvey in Houston as a case study to help think about Charleston.
Sea Level Rise: South Florida and the Netherlands
During the past 100 years, sea level has risen. The rise is consistent with the ocean expanding due to the absorption of heat and the melting of glaciers. Recent observations shows accelerating melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. In fact, there is evidence that several glaciers in West Antarctica are lost. Over the next decades, we will see, on average, persistent and accelerating sea level rise. This will cause profound changes to our coastlines.
It is, perhaps, counterintuitive that sea level rise varies from place to place. In fact, in some places, sea level is observed to be decreasing. This counterintuitive behavior is one of the issues that makes it difficult to calculate and describe uncertainty to local authorities in charge of planning and management.
In the 2016 class, we will look at sea level rise and uncertainty. We will focus on two localities, South Florida and The Netherlands.
California Drought
California is in the midst of a sustained and dangerous drought. Temperatures have been high, precipitation scarce. Looking more broadly, Oregon, Washington, Alaska and western Canada have had record fire seasons in 2015. Temperature readings in Alaska have, at times, seemed more appropriate for Washington, D.C.
In the U.S., California has the largest population of any state. The agricultural productivity is very high. There are unique natural resources. Much of California is dry, and in the best of times, there is competition for water. The drought has amplified the tensions over water. Climate-change models project that the factors that stress water will become larger. The question at hand is whether or not there is adequate credibility and knowledge in the climate-model projections to justify their use in planning and management?
There are two issues we want to consider. The first concerns the uncertainty in climate-change projections. If we want to make knowledge-based decisions, rather than, say, following our intuition, we need to know the uncertainty of our knowledge. Perhaps we need to know “the facts on the ground.” The second issue is stationarity; that is, the concept from statistics that – if one samples a parameter at one time, its mean and standard deviation will be the same as if sampled at another time. We will explore the roles of uncertainty and stationarity in deciding on the usability of climate projections in the planning and management of California water resources.
Specifically: If you are working on dams on the Tuolumne River in California during the next 50 years, how would describe the uncertainty to planners?
Questions and Prompts
The goal is to address the following questions:
- What are that local issues of (sea level rise, drought, agriculture, etc.)?
- What are the known vulnerabilities, and how do they inform the local responses?
- What are the sources of uncertainty that planners and managers face? (Think about the entire portfolio of uncertainties, integrated assessment of uncertainties, descriptions of uncertainty)
- How has the locality responded to climate change projections? What has been the role of uncertainty in their responses?
- How is uncertainty being managed?
- What is the usability of the available information on (sea level rise, drought, agriculture, etc.)
- What additional information is needed?
- What are the most important issues that must be addressed in planning in the locality?
- How important are uncertainties in climate science compared to other sources of uncertainty?
You are at a new job. You are asked to address, for example, the increased flooding of the highway next to the coast. How do you get started? (These are best developed in class discussion.)
- Identify all of the parties involved.
- Do an analysis / integrated assessment of vulnerabilities, risk, cost, and benefit.
- Identify whether or not you can take on this problem “alone” or does it require a “regional” or multi-constituency approach.
- Appreciate that climate is changing, that you have to think about climate strategically. It will require revisiting in each planning cycle.
- Adaptive management. No longer to make a decision and forget it. Will need to adapt planning and management as new knowledge becomes available.
To consider in a final write up
- For the locality / problem that you considered, what are the issues that will be important in successful problem solving? Think beyond “climate,” for example, political buy in, competing interests, etc. What are the primary barriers?
- We considered the approach in a locality or, perhaps, a couple of localities. What motivates these localities, and how does history, either environmental or political, influence their approach and progress on addressing climate change.
- Has the region adopted a climate change (e.g., sea level rise) scenario in their planning? Is this “official” or coming from an advocacy organization?
- What is your analysis of the role of scientific uncertainty in the ability of a region to address climate change? How could better description or framing of uncertainty accelerate addressing climate change?
Resources: Climate Change in Planning and Design (Climate 530)
These are papers and other resources for the course Climate Change in Planning and Design. The course focuses on climate science uncertainty and non-stationarity in the context of real-world problems.The table can be sorted by clicking on the column header. The search box at the top right is a flat search of the table.
The link to the resource is in the "Author" column.
If a resource is protected then use Contact Us in the upper right hand corner.
| Author | Assigned | Title | Type | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hewitson et al. (2014) | 6. yes | Ethical considerations with downscaled data | Philosophy, Ethics | We know the uncertainty is high. Can we still use the information? Ethical considerations |
| National Public Radio | 6. yes | Risk and reason(Recordings of radio series) | Uncertainty | Communicating and using uncertainty. This has proved to be an effective resource. |
| Moss (2011) | 6. yes | Reducing doubt about uncertainty: Guidance for IPCC’s third assessment | Uncertainty | Communicating uncertainty |
| Knaggard (2014) | 6. yes | What do policy-makers do with scientific uncertainty? The incremental character of Swedish climate change policy-making | Usability | Case study of uncertainty use. This has proved to be an effective resource.. |
| Lemos and Rood (2010) | 6. yes | Climate projections and their impact on policy and practice | Usability, Uncertainty | Uncertainty fallacy - that uncertainty needs to be reduced before climate information is usable. |
| GLISA | 5. yes | A Practitioner's Guide to Climate Model Scenarios | Planning | Does this guide communicate effectively to its intended audience? Is the information usable? |
| GLISA | 5. yes | Scenario Planning | Planning | GLISA description of scenario planning and examples. |
| Fisichelli et al. (2013) | 5. yes | Using Climate Change Scenarios to Explore Management at Isle Royale National Park | Planning | This is a reference that provides an introduction to scenario planning, as well as good examples of disruptive climate scenarios. |
| Fourth National Climate Assessment (2018) | 3.yes | Students are to search for usable information on specific region and problem | Assessment | Does this assessment communicate effectively to its intended audience? Is the information usable? |
| IPCC (2014) (AR5) | 3. yes | CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 SYNTHESIS REPORT: Approved Summary for Policymakers | Assessment | Does this assessment communicate effectively to its intended audience? Is the information usable? |
| GLISA | 3. yes | Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region | Assessment | Does this assessment communicate effectively to its intended audience? Is the information usable? |
| GLISA | 3. yes | Annual Climate Trends and Impacts Summary for the Great Lakes Basin | Assessment | Does this assessment communicate effectively to its intended audience? Is the information usable? |
| Rood Lectures | 2. yes | Introduction to Uncertainty in the Scientific Investigation of Earth's Climate | Uncertainty | Classifying and describing uncertainty |
| Hawkins and Sutton (2009) | 2. yes | The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions | Uncertainty | Classifying uncertainty (Model, Scenario, Internal Variability) |
| Rood Lectures | 1. yes | "One Hour" Introduction/Summary of climate change science | Background material | Climate science background |
| WMO | 1. yes | WMO State of the Global Climate (This is regularly updated.) | Background material | Regularly updated, observationally based, state of the climate |
| Third National Climate Assessment (2014) | Students are to search for usable information on specific region and problem | Assessment | Does this assessment communicate effectively to its intended audience? Is the information usable? | |
| National Climate Assessment (2014) | Southwest region assessment | Assessment | Does this assessment communicate effectively to its intended audience? Is the information usable? |
|
| National Climate Assessment (2014) | Brochure: Houston - Galveston - Resilience and Preparedness. | Assessment | Integrated/Compound events: A document thinking through the integrated impacts of weather and climate in Houston and Galveston, Texas |
|
| Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (AR5) | Students are to search for usable information on specific region and problem | Assessment | Does this assessment communicate effectively to its intended audience? Is the information usable? | |
| IPCC (2014) (AR5) | CLIMATE CHANGE 2014 SYNTHESIS REPORT: Full Report | Assessment | Does this assessment communicate effectively to its intended audience? Is the information usable? |
|
| CCSP (2008) | Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I | Assessment, Planning | Does this assessment communicate effectively to its intended audience? Is the information usable? | |
| Barnett et al. (2005) | Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions | Background material | Basic research. This has proved to be a communicative paper on thinking about water resources. |
|
| David Archer Lecture | The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate | Background material | A lecture to support sea level rise planning, Important implications for uncertainty |
|
| John Englander Lecture | High Tide on Main Street | Background material | A lecture to support sea level rise planning, Thinking about integrated uncertainties |
|
| Hurrell et al. | Climate predictions and projections over the coming decades (recorded lecture (MP4), skip first 9:30) | Ensembles, Uncertainty | Classifying and describing uncertainty |
|
| Climateprediction.net | World's largest climate modeling experiment (Web site: Information in several tabs on the site) | Ensembles, Uncertainty | Ensembles and describing uncertainty |
|
| Collins et al. (2011) | Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles | Ensembles, Uncertainty | Ensembles and describing uncertainty |
|
| Murphy et al. (2004) | Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations | Ensembles, Uncertainty | Ensembles and describing uncertainty |
|
| Murphy et al. (2007) | A methodology for probabilistic prediction of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles | Ensembles, Uncertainty | Ensembles and describing uncertainty |
|
| Tebaldi and Knutti (2007) | The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabalistic climate projections | Ensembles, Uncertainty | Ensembles and describing uncertainty |
|
| Tomassini et al. (2010) | Uncertainty and risk in climate projections for the 21st century: comparing mitigation to non-intervention scenarios | Ensembles, Uncertainty | Ensembles and describing uncertainty |
|
| Lloyd (2010) | Confirmation and Robustness of Climate Models | Philosophy | Robustness |
|
| Hargreaves and Annan (2014) | Can we trust climate models? | Philosophy | Trust and Communication |
|
| Parker (2010) | Predicting weather and climate:Uncertainty, ensembles and probability | Philosophy | Ensembles and describing uncertainty |
|
| Parker (2013) | Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions | Philosophy | Ensembles and describing uncertainty |
|
| Parker (2014) | Values and uncertainties in climate prediction, revisited | Philosophy | Ensembles and describing uncertainty |
|
| Parris et al. | Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for U.S. National Climate Assessment | Planning, Uncertainty | Does this assessment communicate effectively to its intended audience? Is the information usable? |
|
| Pidgeon and Fischhoff | The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks | Uncertainty | Communicating uncertainty |
|
| Climate Change Study Program (2011) | Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in climate decision making | Uncertainty | Communicating and using uncertainty |
|
| Moss and Schneider (2000) | Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: Recommendations To Lead Authors For More Consistent Assessment and Reporting | Uncertainty | Communicating, describing, organizing, and using uncertainty |
|
| Mastrandrea and Mach (2011) | Treatment of uncertainties in IPCC Assessment Reports: past approaches and considerations for the Fifth Assessment Report | Uncertainty | Communicating, describing, organizing, and using uncertainty |
|
| Mastrandrea et al. (2011) | The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups | Uncertainty | Communicating, describing, organizing, and using uncertainty |
|
| Yohe and Oppenheimer(2011) | Evaluation, characterization, and communication of uncertainty by the intergovernmental panel on climate change—an introductory essay | Uncertainty | Communicating, describing, organizing, and using uncertainty |
|
| Moss and Yohe (2011) | Resources for Assessing Confidence and Uncertainty National Climate Assessment | Uncertainty | Communicating, describing, organizing, and using uncertainty |
|
| New York Times (2021) | The U.S. Is Getting a Crash Course in Scientific Uncertainty | Uncertainty | Communicating and using uncertainty | |
| National Research Council (2012) | Characterizing, Quantifying, and Communicating Uncertainty (Chapter 6) | Uncertainty | Communicating, describing, organizing, and using uncertainty |
|
| Curry and Webster (2011) | Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster | Uncertainty | Communicating, describing, organizing, and using uncertainty |
|
| Washington Post (2014) | How Not To Communicate Uncertainty about Climate Change | Uncertainty | Communicating, describing, organizing, and using uncertainty |
|
| Lynn et al. (2009) | Quantifying the sensitivity of simulated climate change to model configuration | Uncertainty | Model Parameterization Uncertainty |
|
| Harding et al. (2012) | The implications of climate change scenario selection for future stream-flow projection in the Upper Colorado River Basin | Uncertainty | Scenario Uncertainty |
|
| Yip et al. (2011) | A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions (Statistical Approach) | Uncertainty | Model, Scenario, and Internal Variability Uncertainty |
|
| Northrup (2012) | Comments on "A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions" (Statistical Approach) | Uncertainty | Model, Scenario, and Internal Variability Uncertainty |
|
| Lemos et al. (2014) | Moving Climate Information off the Shelf: Boundary Chains and the Role of RISAs as Adaptive Organizations | Usability, Problem Solving | Introduces the boundary chain model of how boundary organizations serve to translate climate science to applications. | |
| Lemos and Morehouse (2005) | The co-production of science and policy in integrated climate assessments | Usability, Problem Solving | The principle of co-production, where knowledge-users (practitioners) and knowledge providers work as teams of equals | |
| Dilling and Lemos (2011) | Creating usable science: Opportunities and constraints for climate knowledge use and their implications for science policy | Usability, Problem Solving | This paper defines the concepts of usable science. This has proved to be an effective resource. | |
| Cash et al. (2003) | Knowledge systems for sustainable development | Usability, Problem Solving | A foundational paper on knowledge systems, based on use cases. Introduces legitimacy, credibility, and salience as essential for usability | |
| Tang and Dessai (2012) | Usable Science? The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 and Decision Support for Adaptation Planning | Usability, Uncertainty | Uncertainty quantification versus usability |